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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.